Why supplement brands overspend when they optimise for ROAS
Why supplement stores overspend on ROAS: subscription discounts, churn and one-time buyers all look identical in the ROAS column. Where the gap forms.
Share of supplement subscription renewal cycles ending in active churn (Recharge)
17.3%
Source: Recharge: Supplement subscriptions have the leakiest first reorder, published Jul 2026, updated Aug 2026, accessed 28 Sept 2026. Full citation
Recharge platform data from Shopify subscription brands, covering renewal cycles and first-time subscriber cohorts from July 2025 to June 2026. Covers roughly 1,800 supplement brands. A cycle is one scheduled renewal; supplements renew about every 30 days, so this is close to a monthly figure. Skips (6.9% of cycles) are counted separately from churn.
The supplement version of the ROAS problem is assumed retention. A campaign wins a first order, ROAS counts it, and the bid is raised on the promise that the customer will subscribe and keep ordering for months. ROAS can't tell a one-time buyer from a loyal subscriber, and the renewals that are supposed to pay back the first order don't reach Google Ads, because they don't come from an ad click.
The figure above shows how many renewals don't happen. In Recharge's subscription data, covering roughly 1,800 supplement brands from July 2025 to June 2026, 17.3% of supplement subscription renewal cycles ended in active churn: the subscriber cancelled. Supplements renew about every 30 days, so that is close to a monthly figure.
How the gap forms
One-time buyers and subscribers look the same
A first order is a conversion whether the customer subscribes or not. If you optimise on ROAS, the bidding has no way to prefer the searches and audiences that produce subscribers who stay.
The loss is concentrated at the start
Recharge found supplements have the leakiest first reorder of any consumable category it measured: 86.6% of first-time subscribers completed a first reorder, but only 33.8% reached a third and 9.8% a sixth. The drop is steepest early, which is exactly the period a payback calculation depends on.
The bid assumes the average, the cohort delivers the curve
Illustrative arithmetic with made-up round numbers, not a benchmark.
A brand assumes each new subscriber stays six months and earns $15 margin per order: $90 in total. It pays up to $60 to acquire one.
Its real cohort looks like this: everyone places the first order, then 85%, 55%, 35%, 25% and 15% place the next five. Expected orders per subscriber are 1 + 0.85 + 0.55 + 0.35 + 0.25 + 0.15 = 3.15, worth $47.25 in margin. At a $60 acquisition cost, each new subscriber loses $12.75 over six months.
Skips aren't cancellations
Not every missed renewal is a loss. Recharge found supplements have the highest skip rate of the five categories it compared, at 6.9% of renewal cycles. A skipped order defers revenue rather than losing the customer, so count skips separately from churn when you measure retention.
Working out your own gap
- Track subscription and one-time orders as separate conversions in Google Ads and in your own reporting.
- Build a reorder curve for each month's new subscribers, using your subscription app's data, and compare it with the retention your bids assume.
- Work out payback at the subscription price, after the discount, shipping and fees.
- Split the cohorts by campaign. Customers won by different campaigns can churn at very different rates. A campaign whose subscribers leave after one reorder costs more than its ROAS shows, however good that ROAS looks.
How to close it
- Set acquisition targets from measured cohorts, not from assumed lifetime value.
- Bid more for subscription conversions than for one-time orders, in proportion to what your own data shows each is worth.
- Re-check the curve every month. If new cohorts churn faster than old ones, your targets need to come down.
How Supplements & Vitamins compares
| Vertical | Renewal cycles that end in churn | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Supplements & Vitamins | 17.3% | Recharge: Supplement subscriptions have the leakiest first reorder, published Jul 2026, updated Aug 2026 |
| Coffee & Subscription Boxes | 20.7% | Recharge: Supplement subscriptions have the leakiest first reorder, published Jul 2026, updated Aug 2026 |
Questions
- Does Google Ads count supplement subscription renewals?
- Mostly not. Renewals are processed automatically without an ad click, so Google Ads credits a campaign only for the first order. Measure renewals in your subscription app's data to see what a new subscriber is really worth.
- How fast do supplement subscribers cancel?
- In Recharge's data, 17.3% of supplement renewal cycles ended in active churn, and only 33.8% of first-time subscribers reached a third reorder. Use your own cohort curve to set bids.
- Is a skipped order the same as a cancellation?
- No. A skip defers an order but keeps the subscriber. Recharge found supplements have the highest skip rate of the five categories it compared, so count skips separately from churn.
The same question in other verticals
Work it out for your own store
Source and how to read this number
- Figure
- Share of supplement subscription renewal cycles ending in active churn (Recharge): 17.3%
- Source
- Recharge: Supplement subscriptions have the leakiest first reorder, published Jul 2026, updated Aug 2026
- Link
- https://getrecharge.com/blog/supplement-subscription-retention/
- Accessed
- 28 Sept 2026
- Caveat
- Recharge platform data from Shopify subscription brands, covering renewal cycles and first-time subscriber cohorts from July 2025 to June 2026. Covers roughly 1,800 supplement brands. A cycle is one scheduled renewal; supplements renew about every 30 days, so this is close to a monthly figure. Skips (6.9% of cycles) are counted separately from churn.
- Last reviewed
- 30 Sept 2026